A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
