Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
