This Remarkable Golden Spell Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid

Just 60 days ago that the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the reason of the team's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

The Sideline Explosion of Joy

This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After the England international swept in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?

It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant this season, even as the positive results have accumulated.

As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a team that have strung together 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.

His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed more shots and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they have to face in the near future. Rogers, surely, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still return to peak condition.

  • The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
  • Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
  • The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.

This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.

Virginia Taylor
Virginia Taylor

A seasoned gambling analyst with over a decade of experience in the Dutch online casino industry.